Answer: The median age of first marriage has gone up -- but it hasn't gone up uniformly. First it went down, then up. We remember that people used to get married younger. My grandmother remembered that people used to get married older.
Check out the Table MS-2, Estimated Median Age at First Marriage. A lot of history is in this tiny chart: The women's movement. The automobile. The Pill. Education. Health care. Immigration. Workplace rules. Religion.
Note the details: Read from the bottom of the table up. Look at women's ages, in the column on the right. The age went down slowly but steadily from 1890 to 1956, dropping from 22 years to 20.1. Since then, it has been rising rapidly. Recently, however, it has started to level off just above 25.
The difference between men's and women's ages at first marriage has declined significantly, from about 4 years to about 1.5 years. There's a story angle: How low can the gap go? Why is it declining? Will we reach a point where we lose the societal presumption that grooms are older than brides?
The phone number is 301-763-2465. It's at the bottom of the page, a wonderful thing about the Census. Demographers are standing by. Call that number, and someone will answer, "Fertility!"
How do I find that? A good place to start on such demographic questions is the U.S. Census Bureau. Start with its list of "Subjects A to Z." Dial M for Marriage.
Ignore the disclaimer that the Census doesn't keep every stat related to marriage, and "click here to see the U.S. Census Bureau data." At the bottom of the page, you'll see "Marital Status and Living Arrangements." You'd think that was it, but the historical info is actually under "Families and Living Arrangments." You'll find the file called Table MS-2, Estimated Median Age at First Marriage.
Remember that it is at http://www.census.gov, not at http://www.census.com. A finer point: Because of the way the Census Bureau has configured its Web servers, http://census.gov won't work; you need http://www.census.gov This is the kind of problem that is impossible to anticipate; when it doesn't work with a "www," try it without; and vice versa.
Comment: Of course, it's not enough to know that something has gone up or gone down; how it got there may be the story. This chart is useful because you can squeeze several story angles out of it, if you focus on different comparisons.
Also, note that the Census is terrific for giving us a long view; what we're sure happened may just reflect what's happened in the past few years.
Finally, this is a story in flux, perhaps reaching a point of significant change; a lot of stories are like that, and the Census is a good place to troll for interesting ones. Start with the list of "Subjects A to Z."
How do I know this is right? These are estimates. And the inside story may be that the Census isn't doing as much collecting of demographic data from the states as it used to. The numbers on median age at first marriage in each state should be available from state agencies. (A hunch: In some states, the age of women's first marriage started falling a couple of years ago, while in other states it continues to rise.)
How do I attribute this? Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, from information collected by the states.
Go on to Question 10
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